Spotify stock

Spotify stock (NYSE: SPOT) is set to finish 2025 at well beneath $600 per share – a price that represents a sizable increase from the year’s beginning but a 26% slip from SPOT’s 52-week high.

While it probably doesn’t need saying, the mixed-bag performance is raising questions about the trajectory of Spotify stock heading into 2026. And these questions are particularly pressing in light of Daniel Ek’s imminent exit as CEO.

On one hand, SPOT’s 27% year-to-date spike (to $581 or so at the time of writing) marks a significant return. On the other hand, however, Spotify stock is down roughly 25% from late June, when shares were knocking on the door of $800 a pop. Furthermore, 2025’s second half has delivered material across-the-board stock growth and surging indices.

Unfortunately for investors and prospective investors, analysts haven’t provided a ton of clarity.

As we’ve covered, comparatively measured assessments (like from Goldman, which downgraded SPOT) have been pouring in alongside ultra-enthusiastic forecasts (J.P. Morgan settled on an $805 SPOT target earlier in December, against a staggering $900 for Bank of America Securities).

Follow all the opinions to their logical conclusion and you’re left with uncertainty about SPOT’s positioning. Thankfully, we needn’t rely solely on the ever-changing views of financial professionals, who aren’t quite impartial or focused exclusively on companies’ fundamentals.

First, whether SPOT ascends or stagnates in the new year will definitely depend on the performance of soon-to-be co-CEOs Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström.

More of a long-term factor – and not exactly a grand revelation – the point is nevertheless important in that nobody besides Ek has steered the Spotify ship thus far.

Naturally, then, the market is pricing in related considerations. Also priced in: Spotify’s advertising-revenue woes, including a 6% year-over-year decrease in Q3 2025 (to €446 million/$523 million) despite an 11% YoY jump in ad-supported MAUs (to 446 million).

Though nothing to scoff at, the Q3 2025 advertising sum is slightly less than the total kicked in by Q3 2023; in the interim, Spotify’s added all manner of music, plenty of podcasts, ample video content, the better part of 100 million MAUs, AI marketing options, and a dedicated ad exchange.

In short: A lot’s riding on the business’s ability to record advert improvements, especially given the slowing subscriber growth in established markets and the September decision to relax free-tier restrictions.

Finally, the potential 2026 fallout of Spotify’s AI audio avalanche isn’t receiving a ton of attention, but it’ll be worth tracking in the new year. Stated briefly: There’s much more to the machine-made “music” explosion than a few headlines and a couple chart toppers.

As explored by DMN Pro, an elaborate network of AI “artist” profiles, connected via features and playlist placements, is generating millions upon millions of streams and correspondingly hefty royalty payments.

Meanwhile, the number of AI tracks hitting DSPs (and gaining momentum specifically on Spotify) is increasing rapidly. Against this backdrop, what will the platform look like in late 2026? And are advertisers content to have their spots accompany AI slop that, at a minimum, attracts less engaged listeners?